Gold Recovering from Two-Month Low Ahead of Fed Minutes

Gold prices experienced a sharp drop to a two-month low of $4,104 an ounce during Asian trading on October 6, 2026, before rebounding to near $4,163 by the US morning. The brief decline was attributed to rising 10-year Treasury yields, which reached a 24-year high of 5.349% on Monday. The yield later eased to about 5.27%, allowing gold to recover. Silver remained relatively stable, rising 0.28% to $61.25, which brought the gold-silver ratio to 67.97.

The rebound in gold prices was influenced by a modest increase in ADP’s four-week average of private payroll gains, which rose to 23.75K from 22.5K. This data point, though not dramatic, contributed to easing some of the yield pressure that had weighed on gold. The US Dollar Index also retreated from its year-to-date high of 102.53 towards 101.80, further supporting gold’s recovery.

The next significant event for gold investors is the release of the Federal Reserve’s minutes from its most recent meeting on October 7, 2026. The minutes could provide insights into the Fed’s stance on future rate decisions, particularly ahead of the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. As of now, the CME’s FedWatch tool indicates a 78% chance that the Fed will hold rates steady, a figure that has remained consistent throughout the day.

Despite the short-term volatility, analysts emphasize that the long-term case for gold remains strong. Structural factors such as increasing government borrowing and rising bond yields continue to support the metal’s appeal as a hedge against long-term risk. Physical ownership of gold, held outside the daily fluctuations of stocks and bonds, is considered a more stable investment strategy.