Gold, Silver Price Targets Revealed: Bull Case Sees $5,600 Gold, $120 Silver

A new report from Monarch PMS has forecasted potential price targets for gold and silver by year-end. In a bull case, which is assigned a 25% probability, gold could reach $5,000-$5,600 per ounce, while silver may hit $95-$120 per ounce.

The bull case scenario assumes weakness in the labor market, forcing the Federal Reserve to ease repo rates and real yields roll over. Additionally, institutional reallocation into precious metals must resume, and physical tightness in silver should return for the bull case to materialise.

In a base case with a 55% probability, gold is expected to trade between $4,300-$4,700 per ounce by end-2026, while silver may reach $70-$85 per ounce. This scenario assumes the Fed holds rates through September, energy prices normalise, real yields plateau, and central banks maintain purchases of around 250 tonnes a quarter.

On the other hand, the bear case with a 20% probability sees gold at $3,400-$3,900 per ounce and silver at $45-$55 per ounce if the Fed delivers a rate hike in September, oil falls further, and disinflation turns into demand weakness. The principal headwind is the 10-year TIPS real yield, which stands at 2.41% and remains a competing return to zero-coupon assets like gold.