Gold Soars on Weaker US Jobs Data, Rate Hike Odds Plummet

Gold prices surged to a seven-week high on Friday after the US nonfarm payrolls for July came in weaker than expected, reducing hopes of a September interest rate hike.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, far below the 80,000 gain economists had forecasted. This miss immediately reshaped rate expectations, with one analyst noting the Fed is less likely to raise rates at its next meeting.

Declining energy prices and reduced likelihood of a near-term rate increase are contributing to a weaker dollar and firmer gold prices. Rate futures now price in roughly a 45% chance of Fed tightening in September, down from 57% before the jobs report.

One major global bank is predicting that gold prices will climb as high as $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2027, citing a softer dollar and lower real yields drawing investors toward the metal.