Gold Waits on Warsh: Jackson Hole Speech to Determine Fed Tightening Cycles

Gold is trading near $4,600 as investors await Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.

The metal has been relatively stable this week, with a lack of direction in the market due to an uncertain interest rates outlook.

Markets currently see about a 65% probability that the Fed will keep its benchmark rate unchanged in September, but stronger-than-expected inflation data has kept the possibility of another rate hike alive later in the year.

Warsh's speech is crucial as investors are less interested in a precise forecast for September than in whether the Fed chair believes the recent inflation setback is serious enough to keep tightening on the table.