Goldman Sachs Boosts Oil Price Forecasts Amid Persistent Middle East Shipping Risks

Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecasts for Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude in response to persistent shipping risks in the Middle East. The investment bank increased its forecast prices by $5 per barrel for December 2026 and December 2027, citing disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The decline in traffic through the strait has led to a 28% drop in vessel numbers, with laden voyages decreasing from 45 to 33. Iranian officials have announced new restricted zones outside the strait, further escalating tensions and risks for oil shipments.

Goldman Sachs believes that shipping disruptions may persist beyond 2027, with analysts anticipating a potential crude oil production shortfall of 4 million barrels per day in the Gulf region next year. The bank favors natural gas and diesel as tactical hedging instruments to mitigate geopolitical risks, citing the potential for refined product markets to face more severe supply shocks than the crude oil market.