Goldman Sachs has revised its outlook for gold, lowering its end-2027 price forecast to $4,650 an ounce from the previous estimate of $4,800. The adjustment reflects a more challenging near-term outlook, as expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes are expected to dampen private investor demand for the metal.
The revised forecast represents a $150, or 3.1%, reduction from the bank's earlier projection. Despite this downward adjustment, Goldman Sachs still anticipates a 16% upside from current spot prices by December 2027, as it expects private investor demand to rebound once the Federal Reserve begins cutting interest rates late next year.
Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about gold over the longer term, citing structurally strong central bank purchases, including continued buying by China’s central bank. However, the bank’s economists now predict a third 25-basis-point interest rate increase in March 2027, following a second hike expected in December 2026.
A rising federal funds rate is expected to weigh on private-sector investor positioning through early 2027, creating a headwind for gold despite continued central bank accumulation. Goldman Sachs has adjusted its December 2027 price forecast lower in line with its previously outlined downside scenario, reflecting the prospect of tighter monetary policy for longer.
The bank expects private investor demand to recover once the Federal Reserve begins easing monetary policy in December 2027, removing an important constraint on gold prices and allowing investment demand to return. This recovery, alongside continued structural central bank purchases, is expected to support gold’s advance to $4,650 an ounce by the end of 2027.