Goldman Sachs Flags Two-Way Risks to Oil Price Outlook

Goldman Sachs has revised its outlook for oil prices in 2026, citing both upside and downside risks. The bank estimates that Brent/WTI crude will average $83/78 per barrel by 2026.

The biggest upside risk to Goldman's price forecasts comes from reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which currently account for around 10% of normal levels at approximately 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd).

This is due in part to a U.S. Navy blockade on vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports and coastal areas, which could further disrupt oil flows through the strait.

However, Goldman notes that cuts to oil production in the Middle East have been lower than expected, with an estimated 8 million bpd of average crude production shut-ins in the Persian Gulf in March. This skews prices downward.