Goldman Sachs Stands Firm on Gold Price Target Despite Fed Hike

Goldman Sachs is sticking to its forecast of $5,400/toz gold by the end of 2027, despite a recent Fed hike. The bank's economists added another rate increase in October to their policy path, but this doesn't change the longer-term argument, according to Lina Thomas.

The near-term impact of higher rates will slow down the rally, particularly for rate-sensitive parts of gold demand like ETFs. As a result, Goldman lowered its year-end 2026 fair value estimate to $4,650/toz from $4,900/toz.

However, Thomas believes that the additional tightening won't fundamentally change the longer-term picture because Goldman still expects three Fed rate cuts between September 2027 and March 2028. This leaves the terminal rate forecast unchanged at 3.25% to 3.50%.