Goldman Sticks to Bullish Gold Forecast Despite Rate Hikes

Goldman Sachs maintains its bullish view on gold despite recent Federal Reserve rate hikes. Analyst Lina Thomas reiterates a $5,400-an-ounce forecast for the end of 2027, even after this week's Fed hike and with economists now expecting another increase in October.

Thomas notes that higher rates should continue to weigh on gold through exchange-traded fund demand in the near term. However, she expects the impact of tighter monetary policy to be felt primarily through a slower near-term appreciation path rather than a lower terminal gold price.

The bank trimmed its year-end fair value estimate to $4,650 an ounce from $4,900, still above the recent price of about $4,350. Thomas attributes much of the tightening to already being priced into ETF demand.

Goldman expects gold to 'grind higher in the near term,' with stronger-than-expected central bank purchases offsetting the remaining drag from higher rates. Central bank buying remains the main structural driver, contributing nearly all of Goldman's expected 23% appreciation through end-2027.