Goldman Sticks with $5,400 Gold Target Despite Tighter Policy

Goldman Sachs has reaffirmed its bullish long-term view on gold, maintaining a target of $5,400 an ounce for the end of 2027. In a note published last Friday, analyst Lina Thomas trimmed the bank's year-end 2026 fair value estimate to $4,650 from $4,900. This still sits above the recent spot price of around $4,300.

The analysts at Goldman believe that tighter monetary policy will slow gold's near-term climb rather than lower its end point. Thomas noted that higher rates are expected to weigh on gold through exchange-traded fund demand in the short term. However, the Fed is still likely to cut three times between September 2027 and March 2028, leaving the terminal rate unchanged.

Central bank buying remains a key driver of gold prices, with official-sector purchases running at around 90 tonnes per month. This is far above the pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes, and credits this demand with nearly all of the roughly 23% price gain Goldman expects through the end of 2027.

The view is not without risk, however. Thomas cautioned that a more hawkish Fed path than currently assumed could trigger a sharper correction in gold.