Gold's Bond Break Ignites Debate Over Junior Miners' Prospects

The relationship between gold and bonds has changed since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Gold prices have more than doubled since early 2022, while U.S. bond yields have climbed. This break in the traditional inverse relationship between gold and bonds may signal that bullion is regaining a monetary role.

However, the influx of capital into gold has not reached junior miners evenly. Major producers still favor advanced projects over grassroots exploration. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, global gold exploration budgets rose 11% in 2025, but most spending went to lower-risk programs around existing mines.

Industry experts believe that juniors are essential for finding and advancing new deposits, as major producers have underinvested in exploration for over a decade. Ronald-Peter Stöferle of Incrementum noted that central banks began treating gold as a monetary 'Plan B' after the Ukraine invasion. Central banks bought a net 863 tonnes of gold last year, well above the annual average from 2010 to 2021.

Kai Hoffmann of Kamavest Asset Management pointed out that raising interest rates would increase debt payments, while not doing so would lead to inflation. He warned that higher prices could revive marginal projects alongside good ones.