Gold's Next Move Hinges on Structural Demand vs Tightening Financial Conditions
Gold's price has been on a tear, but its next move is not just about reaching round numbers. According to J.P. Morgan, the metal remains above its starting point for the latest cycle, even after retreating from its January peak.
The bank expects gold to average around $6,000 an ounce during the fourth quarter of 2026 and project prices towards $6,300 in 2027. This is based on a combination of factors including central-bank accumulation, geopolitical fragmentation, inflation risks, fiscal concerns, and continued diversification away from traditional reserve assets.
Central banks have already demonstrated their power in the gold market, accumulating an average pace of roughly 225 metric tons per quarter between 2021 and 2025. While officially reported purchases slowed at the beginning of 2026, estimates suggest underlying demand remained strong.