Grain and Oilseed Markets Rebound Amid Black Sea Trade Uncertainty

Grain prices have rebounded after a brief dip at the end of last month, with Nov-26 UK feed wheat futures climbing to £209.00 per tonne. Analysts at AHDB attribute this recovery to ongoing disruptions in Black Sea trade, which continues to support European grain prices. Despite efforts to resume shipping, Russia rejected recent truce proposals, leaving concerns over export disruptions unresolved.

Ukraine’s farm minister added to these worries, warning that winter wheat plantings for the 2027 harvest could drop by 17% due to export challenges stemming from the conflict. Traders are now focusing on the USDA’s upcoming World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, set for release on 09 October, which will provide updated insights into US crop sizes for maize and soyabeans, as well as global supply and demand.

In the oilseeds market, rapeseed prices remain steady, with Paris Nov-26 futures unchanged from last week at €537.00 per tonne. Concerns over sunflower exports from the Black Sea region are contributing to this stability. Meanwhile, wet weather in the US is delaying the soya bean harvest, while Canada’s canola harvest is also being impacted, potentially affecting yields and quality.

Looking ahead, the Indonesian Palm Oil Association has forecasted a 4% decline in palm oil production in 2027, citing recent dry conditions linked to El Niño as a contributing factor.