Greece anticipates largest olive oil harvest in four years amid price pressures

Greek olive oil production is poised for a significant rebound in the 2026/27 marketing year, with forecasts suggesting output could reach around 300,000 tons. This would mark the country’s largest harvest since the 2022/23 season, when production exceeded 330,000 tons. The strongest yields are expected in the Peloponnese and Crete regions, with Messenia potentially exceeding 60,000 tons and Crete roughly doubling last year’s 40,000-ton output due to improved weather and rainfall.

Despite the promising production outlook, producer prices remain under pressure. Carryover stocks from the previous harvest are being sold at around €3.40 per liter in some regions, while new-crop extra virgin olive oil is expected to trade at approximately €4 per liter. Producers warn that profitability sharply declines when prices fall below €5 per liter, citing high harvesting, fertilizer, irrigation, and energy costs.

The market also faces challenges from significant carryover stocks and limited demand from traders and large bottlers. Further price developments will largely hinge on the harvest in Spain, the world’s largest olive oil producer. A large Spanish crop could exacerbate pressure on the Greek market and constrain export demand for new-crop olive oil.