Gulf crude exports rebound despite Strait of Hormuz tensions

Gulf crude oil exports, excluding Iran, have rebounded to pre-war levels just seven months after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, according to data from Kpler. In September, the region exported at least 16.5 million barrels per day, matching volumes seen before the conflict began in late February between the US, Israel, and Iran.

The recovery comes amid a reshaped export system. Around 40% of crude now bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, up from 17% before the war, as Saudi Arabia and the UAE rely more on pipeline routes. For the crude that still crosses Hormuz, over 70% of tankers switch vessels offshore, highlighting a fundamental shift in export methods.

Despite the recovery, security risks persist. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) recently ordered a tanker to turn back or face being targeted, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO). Additionally, a tanker reported being struck by an unknown projectile on October 4, causing damage but no injuries or environmental impact.

The latest data suggests the Gulf oil industry has adapted more effectively to prolonged disruption than initially expected. However, ongoing attacks and geopolitical tensions, particularly the US blockade on Iranian oil, keep the region’s export system vulnerable to further disruptions.