Gulf Exports Bounce Back, Capping Oil Price Gains

Oil prices have taken a breather in early Asian trading as Gulf exports rebounded. The surge in shipments has offset supply anxiety stemming from stalled US-Iran talks.

The Brent crude price held steady at around $98 per barrel, while the US benchmark WTI stayed near $90 after both contracts rose about $1 on Wednesday.

Traders are grappling with two opposing forces: geopolitics that can tighten supply expectations and a clearer, more immediate reality of increased exports from the region.

Saudi Arabia has restarted tanker loadings at Yanbu on the Red Sea after resuming flows through its East-West Pipeline, alleviating concerns about bottlenecks. Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf exports recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day over the past week, roughly in line with its 2025 average.

Exports doubled in September, including 'dark' shipments from vessels with tracking turned off. With OPEC+ expected to keep November targets steady and US crude inventories recently rising, extra seaborne supply can keep prices from breaking much higher unless a new geopolitical catalyst changes the risk picture.