Gulf Oil Exports Reach Pre-War Highs Amid Rising Tanker Threats

Gulf oil exports have surged to pre-war levels for about half of September, according to shipping data released on Monday. The seven-day moving average for crude exports from the region reached 18.3 million barrels per day on September 30, with volumes exceeding pre-war levels on 14 days in the month. This surge has been driven by Saudi Arabia, which has increased shipments to regain market share. The recent export boost has also helped ease tightness in the oil market, particularly for Asian refiners.

However, the outlook remains uncertain due to ongoing attacks on tankers and logistical constraints. Marisks, a shipping intelligence service, warned that ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz face a “heightened and increasingly unpredictable kinetic threat” amid the rise in traffic. At least seven incidents were reported in the past week, including an attack on the very large crude carrier Kazimah III on October 1 and the Lipsi tanker on October 4. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency has reported at least one attack a day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2.

The recent export surge has required more supertankers to shuttle crude through the Strait of Hormuz, with ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman reaching their limits. Iraq’s state-owned Oil Tanker Company has also chartered tankers to load Basrah crude inside the strait after securing Iranian permission in August. Meanwhile, liquefied natural gas cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz rose in September to their highest levels since February.

Despite the challenges, shipping data providers like Vortexa have noted that Gulf flows have recovered, with the 14-day moving average for Middle East crude and condensate exports hitting 18.6 million bpd. This exceeds the 10-year seasonal average and returns to pre-conflict levels. The situation remains volatile, however, as the recent pattern of incidents suggests Iranian forces may be launching missiles into predetermined engagement areas.