Gulf Oil Exports Rebound, but Traders Remain Cautious Amid Ongoing Tensions

Gulf oil exports have rebounded in September, reaching pre-conflict levels for the first time since the US-Iran conflict began. According to data from Kpler, Gulf crude exports excluding Iran reached at least 16.5 million barrels per day in September, up from 6.5 million in March. This marks a significant recovery, but traders remain cautious, pricing in risks to supply due to ongoing tensions in the region.

The market has been slow to react to this development, with international benchmark Brent crude hovering around $100 per barrel. This represents a 40% increase from pre-war levels, but it suggests that investors are still concerned about the potential for further disruptions to oil supplies. As Jim Krane, a research fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute, notes, 'The whole situation feels fragile and tentative.'