Gulf Oil Exports Rebound Despite Regional Conflicts and Iranian Blockade

Oil flows from the Gulf region, excluding Iran, have rebounded to over 81% of prewar levels in September. This recovery was driven by a surge in Saudi exports, despite ongoing attacks on the kingdom’s oil infrastructure and escalating Iranian assaults on regional shipping. Meanwhile, Iran’s oil exports have plummeted to zero due to a U.S. blockade.

Data from Vortexa revealed that crude oil, condensate, and refined fuel flows from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, Iraq, and the UAE averaged 19.2 million barrels per day. This compares to 23.6 million barrels per day before the Iran war began on February 28. According to Kpler, total oil exports in September stood at 18.6 million barrels per day.

Crude oil and condensate flows recovered to 91% of prewar levels, which stood at 16.3 million barrels per day. However, refined fuel exports, including LPG, remained at just 60% of their prewar level of 7.3 million barrels per day. This decline has worsened global shortages of diesel and jet fuel, pushing prices to record highs in several markets.

Saudi Arabia led the recovery in September, with crude oil and condensate exports rising by 4.2 million barrels per day to reach 6.6 million barrels per day. Despite drone attacks forcing the temporary shutdown of the East-West pipeline, Saudi exports offset declines from other Gulf suppliers. Combined exports from the region reached around 14.7 million barrels per day in September, up from 10.8 million barrels per day in August.