Gulf Oil Exports Rebound to 81% of Pre-War Levels in September

Oil flows in the Gulf region, excluding Iran, have rebounded to 81% of pre-war levels by September. This recovery was driven by a significant increase in Saudi exports, which reached around 5.4 million barrels per day (mmbbl/d), despite ongoing attacks on regional energy infrastructure. According to Vortexa data, total exports of crude, condensate, and refined fuels from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, Iraq, and the UAE averaged 19.2 mmbbl/d in September, compared to 23.6 mmbbl/d before the Iran war began on February 28.

Crude and condensate exports showed a stronger recovery, hitting 16.3 mmbbl/d, or 91% of pre-war levels. However, refined fuel exports, including liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), lagged behind, reaching only 60% of their pre-war level of 7.3 mmbbl/d. This slower recovery in refined products has contributed to tight global diesel and jet fuel markets.

Saudi Arabia led the increase in Gulf exports, with Kpler data showing that its crude and condensate shipments rose by around 4.2 mmbbl/d month-on-month to 6.6 mmbbl/d in September. This surge more than offset declines in Kuwait, Qatar, and Iran. UAE and Iraqi exports also increased, while Iranian exports fell to zero during the month.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ decided to keep its November oil production targets unchanged during a meeting on Sunday. Gulf OPEC+ producers have been pumping below their targets as exports have remained between 60% and 80% of normal levels in recent months.