Gulf Oil Exports Recover, But Prices Remain High Due to Geopolitical Risks
Oil prices remain near $100 despite a significant recovery in Gulf oil exports. The Persian Gulf has seen a substantial increase in oil shipments, reaching an average of 23.3 million barrels per day over the past week, which is roughly on par with their 2025 average.
The surge in oil exports was driven mainly by higher shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, including ship-to-ship transfers. This came despite a drone attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline last month and the Houthis' continued blockade of Saudi exports through the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
Saudi Arabia led the recovery, with its exports rising above their 2025 average after shipments were redirected to eastern ports. However, Iranian exports fell below 20% of their 2025 average.
The rebound has been mainly in crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf, which have climbed to 108% of their 2025 average. In contrast, exports of diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel remain at about half their normal level due to refinery outages that are above seasonal norms.