Gulf Oil Exports Recover to Pre-War Levels, but Diplomatic Risks Loom
Oil exports from the Persian Gulf have recovered to their 2025 average after doubling in September, according to Goldman Sachs. The bank estimates that Saudi Arabia's exports led this recovery and exceeded their 2025 average, while Iran shipped no crude by sea during the month.
The estimate gives fresh support to the supply-recovery theme dominating the oil market. Dark exports, which refer to cargoes carried by tankers with switched-off satellite transponders, have also risen significantly. Goldman has argued that these dark flows and increased ship-to-ship transfers show producers and shippers adapting to the conflict.
The latest figures fit with other evidence of a rebound in oil supply. Saudi Arabia resumed tanker loadings from its Red Sea port of Yanbu after restarting the East-West Pipeline, according to Reuters. Kpler data also showed crude exports from Middle East producers rebounding in September to around 16 million barrels per day, the highest since the war began in late February.
The recovery story is not without risks, however. Diplomatic developments pose a significant threat to oil prices. The stalled US-Iran talks and reports of Washington's potential return to major combat operations after the midterms leave a tail risk in the price.