Gulf Oil Exports Surge Amid Rising Tanker Attacks in Hormuz Strait

Oil exports from the Gulf region surged in September, briefly surpassing pre-war levels despite escalating attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping data from Kpler showed that crude exports reached a seven-day moving average of 18.3 million barrels per day on September 30, topping pre-war levels on 14 days in September. This increase was driven largely by Saudi Arabia, which ramped up exports to regain market share, according to senior market analyst Xavier Tang.

The surge in exports has led to a rise in ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, which have now reached their limits. Iraq has also secured permission from Iran to allow its oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, further increasing traffic in the region. Despite the rise in exports, the outlook remains uncertain due to logistical constraints and heightened security risks.

Attacks on tankers continued unabated, with at least seven incidents reported in the past week alone. On October 1, the very large crude carrier Kazimah III was struck by an unknown projectile, causing a fire onboard. Three days later, the Aframax tanker Lipsi was hit by a similar projectile, damaging its engine room. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency has reported at least one attack per day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2.

Marisks, a shipping intelligence service, warned that the recent pattern of incidents may not represent deliberate targeting of individual vessels. Instead, available information suggests that Iranian forces are launching missiles into predetermined engagement areas, with weapons potentially acquiring and locking onto available radar signatures within those zones.