Gulf Oil Flows Bounce Back, Crude Prices Take a Hit
Oil prices took a significant hit on Wednesday as reports suggested that oil flows out of the Persian Gulf had largely returned to pre-war levels. According to JP Morgan, Goldman, and Kpler, exports via the chokepoint are now at or near 80-98% of pre-war levels.
Kpler reported that oil export figures for Hormuz were close to 80%, while JP Morgan estimated them as high as 98%. Goldman took it a step further, claiming oil flows out of the Middle East had reached 23.3 million barrels per day, matching the average for 2025.
In a surprising twist, Saudi Arabia reportedly exported more oil in September this year than it did in September last year, according to Goldman's commodity analysts.
Despite these developments, Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz had little impact on prices. In fact, reports suggest that even though oil flows out of the Persian Gulf may be improving, thanks to ship-to-ship transfers and alternative routes, safe passage is still not guaranteed for the region.