Gulf Producers Bypass Hormuz as Iran's Oil Exports Collapse
The US-Iran confrontation is having a devastating impact on Iran's economy and oil production. According to tanker-tracking data, Iranian crude exports have effectively ground to a halt in September, while Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other Gulf producers are rebuilding their routes to global markets.
New tanker-tracking data indicates that fresh Iranian crude exports have stopped, with regional crude exports averaging about 16.5 million barrels per day in September. However, in the final week of September, this number surged to 19.5 million bpd, above the pre-war level of approximately 17 million bpd.
Kpler data shows that Iranian terminals were effectively 'inactive' for crude loadings throughout September, with no new Iranian crude cargo crossing the US blockade line toward Asian markets since mid-July. This has resulted in a production level of around 1.8 million bpd, roughly enough to meet domestic consumption and about half Iran's pre-war output.
The situation is becoming increasingly dire for Tehran, as its traditional safety valve, China, cannot absorb the oil that cannot physically leave Iranian waters. Around 15 million barrels of Iranian crude remained on the water in Asian waters last week, with much of that cargo already sold.