Hindalco Industries expects its diversified business model to cushion earnings as aluminium prices ease, according to Satish Pai, the company's managing director. While aluminium prices have dropped from an average of $3,400 per tonne in the April-June quarter of 2026 to $3,000 per tonne currently, Pai anticipates that the copper and downstream businesses will support overall performance. The company has guided copper EBITDA at ₹1,200-1,300 crore for each of the next two quarters, with a steady underlying base after accounting for one-time impacts.
Pai also highlighted a stronger recovery ahead for Novelis, with the Korea strike now over and production restarting. He expects the business to maintain a steady-state EBITDA of about $500 per tonne, turn cash flow positive in the January-March quarter of 2027, and begin commercial sales from its new Bay Minette facility in April 2027. The company has recovered about $519 million in insurance claims so far and expects another $100-150 million by March 31.
On the demand front, Pai noted that while some sectors like building and construction are experiencing flatness due to higher interest rates in the US, other sectors such as auto and aerospace remain strong. In India, demand has been extremely strong, particularly during the festive season. Regarding raw material costs, calcined petroleum coke (CPC) and coal costs were up 5% in the July-September quarter of 2026, with another 5% increase expected in the October-December quarter due to coal tightness in the northern region.
The company's working capital release will help lower net debt in the January-March quarter of 2027, even as absolute gross debt remains unchanged. The expansion at Novelis, particularly the cold mill in Alabama, is on track, with commercial sales set to begin in April 2027.