Hormuz Disruption Sends Crude Prices Soaring
The Strait of Hormuz disruption has led to a sharp decline in global oil inventories, keeping crude prices elevated. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and analysts at Rabobank International, Brent crude is expected to average around $85 a barrel in Q3-CY26, up from its previous estimate of $74.
The EIA estimates that global oil inventories declined by an average 4.2 million barrels per day between the April, June quarter and expects a further drawdown of 3.8 million b/d on average in Q3-CY26. The agency forecasts Brent to ease once traffic through the Strait of Hormuz gradually recovers and 'shut-in' oil production starts coming back.
Rabobank, however, has a more bullish outlook on prices over the next few quarters. It has raised its Brent forecast to $90/bbl for both the third and fourth quarters of 2026, from its earlier estimates of around $88/bbl and $86/bbl. Its analysts believe that a short-term agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping is unlikely at present.
The immediate direction of prices will likely hinge on developments around key shipping routes and the pace at which disrupted oil production and flows are restored. Rabobank expects Brent to remain volatile in the months ahead, with $70-$75/bbl acting as the lower-end support zone and $95-$100 forming the upper end of the range.