Hormuz Hold Fades, But War Rages On as Oil Flows Resume
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global energy supplies, has seen traffic recover from nearly 20% of its pre-war baseline. However, this operational success does not signal an end to the war between Iran and its adversaries.
According to Kpler's data, crude and product flows through the strait are now at around 77% of their pre-war level of 17.1 million barrels per day. This recovery is due in part to US military support and the determination of Gulf producers to keep oil flowing despite Iranian threats.
A significant shift has also occurred in how oil leaves the region, with 40% of crude now being transported through pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, rather than crossing the strait. This change is a deliberate effort by these countries to diversify their export routes and reduce their reliance on Hormuz.
The US blockade on Iranian oil exports has also played a role in this shift, with Iran's oil exports dwindling from 2 million barrels per day. However, the war continues to simmer, with regional states pressing ahead with new pipeline routes to further reduce their dependence on Hormuz.