Hormuz LNG Traffic Hits Wartime Record but Leaves Europe Exposed

The Strait of Hormuz logged its best month for liquefied natural gas traffic since the US-Iran war began in February, with a record 19 to 21 cargoes exiting the waterway in September. Despite this milestone, Europe remains exposed due to an 80% gap in LNG supplies.

According to analytics firms S&P Global Energy and Kpler, the number of LNG vessels crossing the strait is still significantly lower than pre-war levels. The gap matters most to European households and businesses heading into a heating season with underground gas storage at its lowest level in at least 15 years.

The September figure represents roughly one-fifth of the approximately 86 LNG vessels that crossed the strait every month before the war. S&P Global Energy's senior principal analyst Eric Yep put the September figure at 19 cargoes, while Kpler's independent tracking put it slightly higher at 21 cargoes for the month.

The discrepancy in counts reflects a specific technical reality of the September recovery: most vessels that successfully transited the strait did so by deactivating their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders, a practice known as dark transit. This approach reduces the chance of detection in a waterway contested by Iranian mines, drone strikes, and speedboat patrols.