Hormuz LNG Transits Hit Seven-Month High, Global Energy Crisis Far From Over

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments through the Strait of Hormuz reached a seven-month high in September, but this milestone is unlikely to alleviate the global energy crisis. S&P Global Energy reported that 19 LNG cargoes left the strait in September, with Kpler counting 21. This surge in traffic still leaves transits about 80% below prewar levels.

ConocoPhillips has locked in a 20-year LNG supply deal with Venture Global, signaling buyers expect Hormuz to remain unreliable for decades. This agreement comes as global oil reserves have fallen by 400 million barrels this year, contributing to rising gasoline prices. The national average price of regular gasoline stood at $4.46 per gallon in the week of September 28.

The timing of these developments is critical, as the Northern Hemisphere heating season approaches. Qatar has extended its LNG force majeure due to ongoing disruptions. Whether transits through Hormuz will continue past winter depends on two factors: whether Iran escalates in response to increased exports and whether US naval-escorted convoys persist despite high operating costs.