Hormuz Oil Flows Surge, But Global Supply Far From Normal

The Strait of Hormuz has seen an increase in tanker transits to prewar levels, according to recent data. The area has been a hotspot for maritime traffic, especially since Donald Trump's presidency. However, with many more tankers passing through the strait than in previous months, analysts are noting a significant rebound.

JPMorgan analysts estimate that crude shipments through the strait have reached 14 million barrels a day, a six-month high. Goldman Sachs estimates total crude exports from Persian Gulf countries at over 23 million barrels a day, similar to the 2025 average. This surge in oil transit is helping clear a route that has kept the world on edge since late February and triggered a major energy crisis.

But despite this increase, investors remain unconvinced that global supply is returning to normal. Brent crude remained above $100 a barrel on Wednesday, with a futures contract for December delivery trading slightly below that level. Investors continue to apply a risk premium to crude, keeping prices elevated. Analysts at Goldman Sachs warn of potential new escalations that could damage more energy infrastructure.

The increase in oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz carries significant geostrategic implications. Iran risks losing its greatest leverage over the United States and the West if these flows continue. However, there is still a high risk of military escalation from Tehran, which could reverberate strongly on prices and affect global supply.