Hormuz Tensions Fuel 57% Chances of $95 Oil
US oil prices have surged due to escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran over the Strait of Hormuz. Prediction market Polymarket puts a 57% chance on West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude touching $95 a barrel before September ends, up from 50% in recent trading.
The main US oil benchmark has climbed sharply from an $86.30 open to around $87 to $88 a barrel on Wednesday, following reports that US forces struck Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island. President Trump vowed to 'hit them very hard', with threats extending to Kharg Island, Iran's principal oil export terminal.
Polymarket's data also shows traders assign a 68% probability to WTI hitting $85 this month, but the chance of oil reaching $100 has fallen 18 percentage points to 33%. More extreme scenarios remain priced as unlikely: a move to $150 carries just a 2% probability.
The Hormuz tensions come alongside disruption from Russia, where refinery strikes have tightened global refining capacity and pushed refined product margins higher. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has been drawn down close to minimum operational levels amid increased crude exports.