Houthis Advance on Key Trade Chokepoint Threatening Saudi Oil Exports

The Houthi rebels in Yemen have made significant gains near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which is a key global trade chokepoint. The group has captured the strategic port of Mokha and is reportedly deploying forces on nearby islands, including Perim, which sits directly in the strait.

This development poses a growing threat to Saudi Arabia's oil exports, as it could allow the Houthis to disrupt shipping through the Red Sea. The Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted by the US-Iran war, forcing Saudi Arabia to divert crude through its East-West Pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea.

Saudi oil exports through the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb reached 3 million barrels per day in July before Houthi attacks intensified. The vulnerability is already visible in Saudi oil data, with production falling by 1.9 million barrels per day in August to 6.238 million bpd.

The Houthis could seek to replicate Iran's strategy in Hormuz, using their position around the chokepoint as an economic bargaining tool and potentially attempting to impose tolls on vessels.