IEA and OPEC at Odds Over 2026 Oil Demand Projections

The International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC have released opposing forecasts for global oil demand in 2026. The IEA now expects a decline of 1.6 million barrels per day (mb/d), while OPEC still predicts growth.

OPEC's estimate has been trimmed for a fourth consecutive month, to 580,000 b/d from 780,000 b/d. This implies a difference of about 2.2 mb/d in what the world will burn this year.

The IEA cut its supply forecasts again and now expects output to fall by 4.3 mb/d this year due to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and elevated fuel prices. Global production rose by 2.4 mb/d to 101.5 mb/d in July but remained 6.3 mb/d below year-earlier levels.