IEA Cuts Oil Supply Forecast Amid Escalating Conflicts

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has cut its 2026 global oil supply forecast by 5.7 million barrels per day, citing escalating wars in Iran and Ukraine as a major factor.

This represents a 6% annual decline and deepens the 4% contraction forecast in August.

The IEA also downgraded global demand projections, anticipating a 2.5 million bpd drop this year, down sharply from the 1.6 million bpd predicted last month.

Diplomatic gridlock between Washington and Tehran, renewed attacks across the Strait of Hormuz, and persistent maritime instability in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait continue to disrupt global supply corridors.