IEA Cuts Russia Oil Output Forecast Amid Ongoing Ukrainian Attacks

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its forecast for Russia's oil production downwards due to ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks on energy infrastructure.

Russia's crude output has been declining amid Ukraine's strikes, with the IEA reducing its 2026 forecast by 125,000 barrels per day to 8.7 million bpd and its 2027 outlook by 235,000 bpd to an average of 8.6 million bpd.

The Paris-based agency cited Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries as the reason for the downward revision.

Russia's oil production declined last month by 200,000 barrels per day from July to 8.36 million bpd, according to the IEA, which is a steep 940,000 bpd lower than the January 2026 peak of 9.3 million bpd and 695,000 bpd below year-ago levels.

OPEC reported that Russia's oil production declined by 160,000 barrels per day in August from July to 8.718 million bpd.