IEA Cuts Russian Oil Output Forecast Amid Ongoing Ukraine Conflict

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reduced its forecast for Russian oil production due to ongoing attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. The IEA estimates that Russia's crude output will average 8.7 million barrels per day in 2026, down from a previous estimate of 9.3 million barrels per day.

The decline is attributed to the Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia's oil refineries and energy infrastructure. As a result, Russia's oil production has been declining since July, with a drop of 200,000 barrels per day last month.

This downward revision comes after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reported that Russia's oil production declined by 160,000 barrels per day in August. The IEA's revised forecast is based on data that shows Russia's crude output has been steadily decreasing since January 2026.