IEA Downgrades Oil Demand Forecast by 940,000 Barrels Per Day
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has downgraded its forecast for global oil demand in 2026, predicting a decline of 2.5 million barrels per day year-on-year.
This is 940,000 barrels per day lower than the IEA's estimate published last month, and is attributed to ongoing disruptions to Gulf oil exports and record fuel prices, particularly for diesel.
The agency expects global oil demand to recover in 2027, reaching 105 million barrels per day, but warns that a prolonged disruption to Gulf oil flows or further damage to the global economy could result in a weaker-than-expected recovery next year.
The projected decline in 2026 is likely to be comparable in scale to the four largest oil-demand shocks of the past 60 years, including the oil crises of the 1970s and the COVID-19 pandemic.