IEA Slashes Global Oil Supply Forecast Amid Ongoing Middle East Hostilities

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its forecast for global oil supply, predicting a 4.3 million barrels per day (bpd) drop this year.

This is a 0.6 million bpd increase from the IEA's July report and would take total supply to 102.02 million bpd, the lowest forecast yet for this year.

The agency attributes this decline to ongoing hostilities in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, which has led to a significant reduction in oil exports.

In July, Middle East production was 8.3 million bpd below pre-war levels, and the IEA expects an oil market deficit of 1.8 million bpd over the next quarter (July-September).