IEA Slashes Oil Supply Forecast Amid Ongoing Disruptions

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has sharply reduced its forecast for global oil supply in 2026, citing the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a major contributor to the shortfall.

The agency projects that global oil supply will drop by 4.3 million barrels per day this year, down from its previous estimate of 3.7 million barrels per day. This would put worldwide supply at 102.02 million barrels per day, a new low for the year.

The IEA attributes the persistent supply-demand imbalance to the Hormuz closure, U.S. sanctions blocking Iranian exports, strikes in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and lower Kazakh CPC Blend shipments.