IEA Warns Investment Needed to Maintain Oil Production

The International Energy Agency's (IEA) net-zero roadmap from 2021 called for an end to new oil and gas projects, warning that additional investment could create 'stranded assets.'

However, in its 2025 analysis of oil and gas field decline rates, the IEA acknowledged a more complicated reality.

The agency warned that maintaining production will require substantial continuing investment, as existing fields decline at an average rate of nearly 6% annually.

If investment in existing production stopped altogether, natural decline would reduce global oil production by roughly 8% each year, or about 5.5 million barrels per day, equivalent to the combined output of Brazil and Norway.

The IEA's original report also concluded that maintaining current production levels through 2050 would require more than 45 million additional barrels per day from new conventional oil fields.