IFFO warns of lowest fishmeal and fish oil supply in a decade

The International Fishmeal and Fish Oil Organization (IFFO) has forecasted the lowest supply of fishmeal and fish oil since 2016, with global fishmeal production expected to fall below 4.6 million tonnes in 2026. Fish oil supply is projected to reach around 1.15 million tonnes, marking a significant drop from previous years. These estimates suggest continued tight availability for aquafeed manufacturers, though price impacts remain uncertain.

Production improved in August due to higher raw material intake in Chile, Spain, and the United States. The year-on-year decline through August narrowed to 45% for fishmeal and 26% for fish oil, compared to 49% and 30% in July, respectively. These figures are based on IFFO’s member reporting sample, which covers about 40% of global fishmeal production and 50% of fish oil production.

Peru, a major player in the industry, remains a key constraint, with low raw material availability and a closed north-central anchoveta fishing season. The country typically accounts for around 20% of global fishmeal and fish oil production. Peru’s Marine Research Institute (IMARPE) launched a stock assessment on 15 September, with results expected by 7 October, which will provide critical insights for the fishing outlook.

In China, imported fishmeal stocks continued to decline in late September, and domestic production following the fishing moratorium fell short of expectations. IFFO’s Market Research Director, Enrico Bachis, noted that catches during the final weeks of the year could alter current estimates. While August’s improvement has narrowed the shortfall, a sustained recovery in marine ingredient supply remains uncertain.