The Indian government expects wheat cultivation to remain stable during the current rabi season, despite earlier monsoon deficits. ML Jat, secretary in the Department of Agricultural Research and Education, noted that major wheat-producing states are fully irrigated, reducing vulnerability to rainfall variations. This stability raises hopes for another record harvest, with the agriculture ministry targeting 121 million tonnes for the 2026-27 crop year, up from last year's 120.7 million tonnes.
El Niño conditions, which could disrupt monsoon patterns, are not expected to significantly impact wheat sowing. As of mid-September, central wheat stocks stood at 47.44 million tonnes, well above the required 27.58 million tonnes. This surplus provides flexibility for welfare schemes and market demand management.
Rainfall during the monsoon season was 13% below normal, with deficits in northwestern and central regions. However, October rainfall in key wheat-growing states like Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh has been favorable, supporting soil moisture for sowing. The government has also increased the minimum support price for wheat to ₹2,610 per quintal for the 2027-28 marketing season.
Experts emphasize that wheat requires less irrigation than paddy, limiting the impact of uneven rainfall on planting decisions. Ratan Tiwari, former director of ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat & Barley Research, confirmed that soil moisture levels remain favorable, ensuring stable wheat cultivation area.