India Reopens Wheat Exports Amid Global Disruptions

India has begun supplying wheat to Bangladesh again after lifting its export ban in late August. The move comes as global prices soar due to disruptions in the Black Sea trade caused by the Russia-Ukraine war.

The war has forced buyers across Asia, Africa, and Europe to seek alternative supplies, putting pressure on cash-strapped importers like Bangladesh. Before India lifted its export ban, Bangladesh had turned to suppliers from Argentina, Canada, Russia, and Ukraine, with 40% of imports coming from the Black Sea region.

Indian wheat exports are forecast to more than quadruple to 2 million tonnes in the 2026/27 season, making the country's wheat internationally competitive for the first time in five years. Importers have already booked over 200,000 tonnes of Indian wheat at prices ranging from $305 to $326 a tonne.

According to Vladimir Zinkovski, head of APAC crops research at S&P Global Energy, the bigger risk for Bangladesh is affordability rather than availability. Elevated prices may increase rice consumption, and India has the potential to become a meaningful additional source of regional wheat supply.