India's Copper Refining Expansion Plan Hinges on Uncertain Zambian Deal

India's ambitious copper refining expansion plans are set to fall short of meeting domestic demand, locking in high import dependence for years to come.

The country aims to build up to 5 million tonnes of refining capacity by 2030, but current projects indicate a significant shortfall in mine supply. According to Rahul Kanuganti, vice chairman of the Critical Minerals Association of India, reducing concentrate import dependence to below 80% by 2035 'does not appear realistic.'

The Ministry of Mines is currently holding talks with Zambian officials over copper and critical minerals investment, but the outcome remains uncertain. If successful, the deal would allow India to take units off the seaborne market on long-term terms, potentially lifting prices for uncommitted offtake.

However, if the talks stall again, India may be forced to bid against Chinese smelters, further tightening raw material markets and benefiting concentrate producers with uncommitted offtake.