India's EV Transition Driven by Diverse Vehicle Mix, Mineral Demand Skyrockets

India's electric vehicle (EV) transition differs significantly from Western countries due to its diverse mix of vehicles, including two-wheelers, auto-rickshaws, buses, trains, and passenger cars. Unlike Europe and the US, where EV adoption is largely driven by cars, India's electrification journey will be shaped by different factors.

The country's transport sector is dominated by two-wheelers and auto-rickshaws, which are expected to rapidly electrify in the first phase of the transition. As these markets mature, growth will come from replacing older vehicles rather than expanding the overall fleet. Cars, on the other hand, are expected to continue expanding beyond 2050.

This unique pattern of vehicle ownership and growth will put varying pressure on mineral supply chains over time. Demand for critical minerals such as lithium, copper, nickel, and cobalt is expected to rise significantly, with some cases exceeding recent global production benchmarks. By 2030, demand for slow chargers could increase six to nine times, driven largely by two- and three-wheelers.

The implications for critical minerals are significant. Relative to recent global production benchmarks, lithium demand could more than double, copper demand could approach three times, and nickel demand could approach two-and-a-half times its production benchmark. Cobalt demand could also approach its corresponding global production benchmark.