India's Growth Outlook at Risk as Oil Prices Stay Above $90 Per Barrel

India's economic resilience is facing a threat from high oil prices, which could hit growth through multiple channels if crude stays above $90 per barrel for a quarter. According to Debopam Chaudhuri, chief economist at Piramal Group, 'A temporary spike above $90 is manageable; sustained landed crude costs above $90 for a quarter or longer could begin to create meaningful macroeconomic fault lines.'

The country's economy is expected to retain strong momentum despite geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainty. Several reports put April-June growth at 7.1%, with economists expecting growth to moderate to around 6.7% for the full 2026-27 fiscal year.

India's crude import bill almost doubled from $9.82 billion in February to $18.9 billion in May, an increase of about 92.5% in three months. The bill then moderated to $14.7 billion in June and $13.7 billion in July, as crude prices eased.

Radhika Rao, senior economist and executive director at DBS Bank, said the economy remained resilient, supported by domestic demand, a recovery in government capital expenditure, urban consumption, and services.