India's Russian Oil Imports Surge Amid West Asian Supply Shocks

India's import of Russian crude oil has increased significantly since the start of the US-Iran war, with an average of 60 million barrels per month compared to 46 million barrels during FY23-26. According to a report by Axis Bank Economic Research, this increase cannot be attributed solely to discounts, as the average discount on Russian crude vs West Asia has been stable at $3-5/bbl since 2023.

The report argues that even if India were to procure these excess barrels in the spot market, oil prices would likely be higher than today. This is due to the fact that Russia's share of Indian crude imports rose despite premiums of up to $7/bbl.

India's exports have also grown 19% year-on-year, led by electronics, auto/parts, metals, and refined petroleum products, while exports to the US have recovered.