India's Russian Oil Supplies Tighten Amid Strong Chinese Demand
India's top crude importer, Russia, is facing a tightening supply situation due to reduced exports and strong demand from China. This has forced Indian refiners to seek alternative sources of oil, including UAE Murban and Iraqi Basrah, which are pricier than the usual Russian Urals grade.
Russian oil arrivals in India have been declining since July, with a 16.5% drop to around 2.1 million barrels per day. In September, they fell to their lowest level this year at approximately 1.75 million barrels per day, according to analytics firm Kpler.
India has been the top buyer of seaborne Russian Urals crude since 2022, when Moscow diverted its energy flows away from Europe at deep discounts. However, China's increased demand for Russian oil has squeezed Indian refiners, who are now struggling to secure adequate supplies in October and November.
Shipping dynamics have also played a role, with the Arctic Northern Sea Route (NSR) providing a secure and cost-effective channel for Russian crude exports to China. In contrast, shipments to India via the Red Sea face heightened security risks linked to the conflict involving Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis.