The United States has intensified economic pressure on Iran, with reports indicating a naval blockade, stringent sanctions, and border disruptions continuing indefinitely. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed Iran’s economy is collapsing and predicted worsening conditions over the next one to three months. Tehran-based economist Isaac Saidian warned that if oil revenues drop to near-zero, Iran will face severe challenges in managing government expenditures and preventing inflation.
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian acknowledged the economic strain but insisted there are no prospects of economic collapse. The government has outlined two budget scenarios: one assuming continued sanctions and blockade, and another predicting improved conditions with fewer restrictions. Deputy for coordination of planning and budget Mohammad Ghasemi emphasized the need to prepare for a scenario where oil revenue reaches zero.
The US blockade, in place since July 14, has reportedly redirected 147 ships and disabled five, while destroying 10 Iranian oil tankers. Kpler data shows Iran’s oil production has fallen below 2 million barrels a day, down from 3.59 million in February. Around 43 million barrels remain stranded inside the blockade area, with crude receipts expected to dry up by mid-December.
To mitigate the crisis, economist Saidian suggested reviewing public spending, reforming tax exemptions, and carefully managed bond issuance. The government has signaled plans to reduce fuel subsidies gradually and prioritize inflation control through fiscal discipline. However, Saidian cautioned that no amount of austerity measures can fully replace sustainable access to foreign trade and investment.